European Shipping Rates Soar 7% for Six Consecutive Weeks While US West Coast Prices Plunge Below $2200!
Recently, the global container shipping market has presented a landscape of "two extremes." Asia-Europe route rates continue to climb, marking six consecutive weeks of increases with a weekly rise of 7%. In stark contrast, trans-Pacific route rates continue to fall, with the US West Coast route dropping below the $2200 mark.
Behind this rare divergence lies fundamentally different supply-demand dynamics, seasonal factors, and regional economic conditions across these major trade lanes.
Multiple shipping companies including CMA CGM, MSC, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced another FAK rate increase for European routes effective December 1st, aiming to further push rates upward during the peak season.
01 Market Overview: European and American Routes Diverge Sharply
Latest shipping data reveals significant divergence in rate trends across major global routes. As of November 21st, the Shanghai-Rotterdam route rate has climbed to $2193, while the Shanghai-Genoa route rate has also risen to $2319.
Both these key European routes have maintained their upward momentum for six consecutive weeks, demonstrating robust market demand.
Meanwhile, the once-booming trans-Pacific routes continue to weaken. The Shanghai-Los Angeles freight rate dropped 7% to $2172, while the Shanghai-New York rate fell 10% to $2922.
According to Xeneta data, the average spot rate from the Far East to the US East Coast has accumulated a 23% decline since its November 1st peak, clearly indicating market softness.
02 Driving Forces Behind European Route Increases: Demand Surge and Peak Season Effects
Multiple factors are pushing Asia-Europe rates upward. The fourth quarter traditionally represents the peak demand season for European routes, with both Christmas and Black Friday shopping events driving a surge in shipping demand.
An international freight forwarder sales representative noted: "Both Christmas and Black Friday fall in the fourth quarter, making it the peak demand season for European shipping."
Changes in China's export structure also provide support for European route rates. Particularly, growing export demand for Chinese solar photovoltaic products and electric vehicles is occupying significant container space, with these categories being relatively less price-sensitive.
"Carriers handling these goods aren't short of cargo at origin ports, which also drives market demand and pushes rates higher," the freight forwarder added.
Shipping companies' capacity management also plays a crucial role in raising rates. Although major carriers have added capacity to five main routes this week—with Far East-Northern Europe capacity increasing 4.8% and Mediterranean capacity growing 8.7% week-over-week—rates remain firm.
This indicates sufficient European route volumes to absorb the additional capacity.
03 Reasons Behind US Route Declines: Overcapacity and Weak Demand
In stark contrast to European routes, trans-Pacific rates continue to soften. Increased capacity coupled with weak demand are the primary drivers behind US route rate declines.
Reports show that Far East to US West Coast capacity increased 5.4% week-over-week, while East Coast capacity grew 11.4%, but the market clearly struggles to absorb these additions.
More critically, of the 48 cancelled sailings announced globally over the next five weeks, the trans-Pacific eastbound routes account for a substantial 48%.
This data highlights the severe challenges facing the US route market.
Although several liner companies plan to implement GRI or FAK increases in early December, the sustainability of these hikes remains doubtful without substantial demand recovery.
A sales representative from Yongli Dongfang Supply Chain Management Group pointed out: "Regarding the China-US route, although the 301 policy is currently paused, most industry players maintain a wait-and-see attitude, making large-scale recovery difficult in the short term."
04 Carrier Strategies: Preemptive Rate Hikes and Capacity Control
Facing market divergence, shipping companies' strategies appear particularly deliberate. On Asia-Europe routes, multiple international shipping giants initiated a wave of rate increases in November.
CMA CGM Group, Hapag-Lloyd, Mediterranean Shipping Company, and other major carriers have issued notices to increase base rates on multiple important Asia-Europe routes starting November 15, 2025.
Among these, Hapag-Lloyd's FAK rate hikes are particularly notable, with the Asia-Mediterranean route 40'GP rate reaching $3500, representing a 40% increase from October.
Unlike previous years, rate increase announcements this year came 2-3 weeks earlier than usual and followed a dense rhythm.
This "preemptive pricing" strategy aims to reverse the sluggish market during peak season, with carriers attempting to boost rate levels through "advanced rate locking + capacity control" strategies before the new annual contract negotiation season begins, thereby securing profitability earlier for the following year.
05 Market Outlook: Short-term Divergence Likely to Persist
Industry institutions generally predict that the polarized trend between European and American routes will likely continue through year-end. For European routes, the short-term outlook remains positive, though long-term uncertainties persist.
An anonymous comprehensive logistics professional noted: "Driven by the fourth quarter peak season, coupled with recent easing of the Red Sea crisis and Middle East tensions, Asia-Europe routes might experience some recovery. The short-term outlook is positive, but the long-term situation still requires observation."
The US route market faces greater challenges. While mainstream carriers recently demonstrated determination to support rates, the effectiveness of price increases remains questionable without substantial demand improvement.
Notably, the increase in FAK rates doesn't necessarily mean immediate market transaction prices will follow suit. FAK represents carriers' standard pricing, while spot rates reflect actual market transaction prices, with the latter's changes needing reference to WCI indices.